Friday, November 28, 2008

Bank Failure Friday

Coffin Nailing Accompaniment

Hey little banker what have you done
Hey little banker who's the lonely one
Hey little banker who's your savior man
Hey little banker who's the one you want
Hey little banker shot gun!

It's a nice day to start again
It's a nice day for a bank wedding
It's a nice day to start again.

Hey little banker what have you done
Hey little banker who's the only one
I've been away for so long (so long)
I've been away for so long (so long)
I let you go for so long

It's a nice day to start again (come on)
It's a nice day for a bank wedding
It's a nice day to start again.

(Pick it up)

Take me back home
There is nothin' fair in this world
There is nothin' safe in this world
And there's nothin' sure in this world
And there's nothin' pure in this world
Look for something left in this world
Start again
Come on

It's a nice day for a bank wedding
It's a nice day to start again.
It's a nice day for a bank wedding
It's a nice day to start again

3 Comments:

Blogger Mike Mayberry said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

7:16 PM  
Blogger Mike Mayberry said...

You mentioned a point on CR comments that oil price collapse disproves peak oil. Since I am obsessed with peak oil (and admittedly confused about what is happening) I would like to mention two additional ideas that could be just as true.

1. In the upward swing of the speculation spike in the first half of 08, a peak oil premium was being priced into the commodity, but the other players in the market were creating a feedback loop driving up the price which was not sustainable. There were similar spikes in other commodities as well.

2. The downward swing of the speculation spike (which is dropping much faster and farther compared to the uptick) has taken the "peak oil premium" out of the price. But this discount is not based on flow rates, it is based on deleveraging running up the dollar thereby running down commodities prices across the board along with bad news about the economy bringing down demand forecasts.

The argument that supply/production is at or near peak has not been addressed in the market at all. No one was saying peak corn, but the corn price went up. Peak oil is something that is based on geology and technology, not the market price. In order for it to be priced into the market, a majority of traders have to believe in it. There are only a minority of traders that do. Everyone else is in the business as usual mindset of looking at geopolitical/economic events to set the price.

Since I do not believe that there is a significant surplus of supply, particularly with these low prices, I think the possibility exists over the near term that there will be spot shortages in places that have not seen them since the 70's. Prices might not indicate that they are coming at all because commodities seem caught in a tailspin right now.

7:22 PM  
Blogger Rob Dawg said...

Are you old enough to remember "his and his and his accoutrement?" circa 1988.

3:04 PM  

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